Research Paper ABA International Studies Submitted By: Lyman Camille Andrea Submitted to: Ms. Catherine Tulane Article l: The Age of Unpopularity What Will Follow U. S Dominance? Facts: The age of nonparallel_ At first the united States Is dominating the other nations in the world.
Next to United States the different nations that have major power are China, European Union, India, Japan and Russia.In addition among the nation that have regional powers : Brazil, Arguably, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela in Latin America, Nigeria, and South Africa in Africa, Egypt ,loran, Israel and Saudi Arabia n the Middle East: Pakistan in South Asia, Australia, Indonesia and South Korea in East Asia and Oceania. The nations that have global organization international monetary fund: united Nations, world Bank. Those that are regional the African Union, the Arab League, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations the ELI, the organization of American State, the South Aslant Association for Regional Cooperation.
Those that are functional organization are: the International Energy Agency, OPEC, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the World Health Organizations. Aside from he polarity nation these are the large global state companies that dominate the world due to energy, finance and manufacturing: California, Indian's Attar Pradesh and cities such as New York, SAA Paulo and Shanghai. Other entities deserving inclusion would be global media outlets, political parties, religious Institutions and movement, terrorist organizations, drug cartel and NAGS of a more benign sort.The rise of sovereign wealth funds in countries such as China, Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia.
These governments controlled the pools of wealth mostly the result of oil and gas sports now some three trillion dollars. They are growing at a projected rate of one million dollar a year and are an Increasingly Important source of liquidity for U. S firms. Today's world is increasingly one distributed rather than concentrated power. Issues: In this world, the united Sates is and will long remain the largest single aggregation of power.To maintain the status of being a major power In polarity the GNP must be higher than the GAP.
The united States economy is having a fourteen trillion dollars f GAP; It Is the world's largest. The US share of global imports is already down to fifteen percent is sure the GAP accounts for over twenty five percent of the world's total, this percentage is sure to decline over time given the actual and projected different total between the united states growth rate and those of the Aslant giants and many other countries, a large number of which are growing at more than two or three times the tots from US economic dominance.The rise of sovereign wealth funds in countries such as China, Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Emirates. High energy prices fueled mostly by the surge in Chinese and Indian demand are her to stay for some time meaning that the size and significance of these funds will continue to grow. Alternative stock exchanges are springing up and drawing way companies from US exchanges and even launching initial public offerings.
London in particular competing with New York as the financial center and has already suppressed it in terms of the number of IPSO it hosts.The dollar has weaken against the Euro and the British pound and it is likely to decline in value relative currencies other than the dollar, and a more dominate oil in Euros or basket of currencies is possible a step hat would only leave the US economy more vulnerable to inflation as well as currency crises. Us primacy is also being challenged in other realms, such as military effectiveness and diplomacy. Measures of military spending are not the same as measure of military capacity.
September eleven showed how small investment by terrorists could see extra ordinary levels of human and physical damage.Many of the most costly pieces are replaced by urban combat zone. In such environments large numbers of lightly armed soldiers can prove to be than a more than a match for smaller numbers of highly trained and better arrived US troops. Power and influence are less and less limited in an era of non polarity.
US calls for other reform will tend to fallen deaf ears, US assistance programs will buy less and US Led sanctions will accomplish less. After all China proved to be country best able to influence North Koreans nuclear power program .Washington's ability to pressure Tehran has been strengthened by the participation of several Western European countries and weaken by the reluctance of China and Russia to sanction Iran. Both Beijing and Moscow have diluted International efforts to pressure government in Judas to end its ar in Daffy.
Pakistan, meanwhile has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to resist U. S entreaties as have Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Zanzibar. The trend also extends to the world of culture and information.Plywood produces more films every year than Hollywood. Alternatives to US produced and disseminated television are multiplying website and blobs form other countries provide further competition for US produces news and commentary.
The proliferation of information is a much a cause of unpopularity as is the proliferation of weaponry. Traditional realist theory could have predicted the end of unpopularity and the down of multiplier world. Anti- Americanism is wide spread, no great poor rival or or set of rivals has emerged to challenge the United States.In part, this is because the disparity between the power of the United States and that of any political rival is too great. Russia may be more inclined, but it is still has a largely cash crop economy and is saddled by a declining population and internal challenges to its cohesion.
The fact that classic great power rivalry has not come to pass and is unlikely to arise anytime soon is also artsy a result of the United States behavior which has not stimulated such a response. This is not to say that the United States under the leadership of George W Bush has not alienated other nations; it surely has.But it has not for the most part, acted in manner that has led other states to conclude that the United States constitutes a threat to their vital national interests. Doubts about the wisdom and denunciations than outright resistance. A further constraint on the emergence of great many of the powers rivals is that other major powers are dependent on the international system for their economic welfare and political stability. They do not; accordingly want to disrupt an order that serves their national interest.
Those interests are closely tied to cross-border flows of goods, services, people, and energy.Investment, and technology flows in which the United States plays a critical role. Integration into the modern world dampens great power competition and conflict. But even if great powers have not emerged unpopularity has ended. Three explanations for its demise stand out. The first is historical.
States develop; they get utter at generating and piecing together the human, financial and technological resources that lead to productivity and prosperity. The rise of these powers cannot be stopped. The result is an ever larger number of actors able to exert influence regionally or globally.A second cause is U. S policy. To paraphrase Walt Kelly's Pogo, the post World War II comic hero, we have met the explanations and it is us.
By both what it has done and what it has failed to do, the United States has accelerated the emergence of alternative power centers in the world and has weekend its own position relative to them U. S energy policy is a driving force behind the end of unpopularity. Since the first oil shocks of the nineteen seventies, US consumption of oil has grown by approximately twenty percent and more important U.S imports of petroleum products have more than doubled in volume and nearly doubled as a percentage of consumption. This growth in demand for foreign oil has helped drive up the world price of oil from Just over twenty dollar a barrel to over one hundred dollars a barrel in less than decade. The result is an enormous transfer of wealth and leverage to those states with energy reserves.
In short U. S energy policy has helped bring about the emergence of oil and gas producers as major powers centers. U. S economic policy has played a role as well.
President Lyndon Johnson was widely criticized for simultaneously fighting a war in Vietnam and increasing by an annual rate of eight percent and cut taxes. As a result the United States fiscal position declined from a surplus of over one hundred dollars billion in two thousand one to an estimated deficit of approximately of two hundred fifty billion dollars in which is now more than six percent of GAP. This places downward pressure on the dollar, templates inflation and contributes to the accumulation of wealth and power elsewhere in the world.Poor regulation of the U. S mortgage market and the credit crisis it has spawned have exacerbated these problems.
The war in Iraq has also contributed to the dilution of the United States position in the world. The war in Iraq has proved to be an expensive war of choice militarily, economically and diplomatically as well as in human terms. Years ago, the historian Paul Kennedy out lined his thesis about "imperial overstretch" which posited that the United States could have eventually decline overreaching Just as other great powers had in the past.Kennedy's theory turned out to apply most immediately to the Soviet Union, but the United States for all its corrective mechanisms and dynamism has not proved to be immune. It is not simply that the U. S military will take a generation to recover from Iraq; it is also that United States lacks military assets to continue doing what is doing in Iraq, much less assume new burdens of any scale elsewhere.
Conclusion: different nations will give us an idea the causes and effects of GNP and GAP or economy of the world.Reference: From Foreign Affairs, May June/June, Copyright on Foreign Relations, Inc, Reprinted by permission of Foreign Affairs. Www. Foreignness's.
Com Article 3: Europe the Second Superpower It has become fashionable to view the global system as dominated by the United States, China and India. Missing from these equations is Europe. The Old Continents reputation for sluggish economic and demographic growth, political disunity and weak militaries has convinced most foreign analyst that the future belongs to Asia and the United States.Indeed among scholars, commentators and politician alike the invitational view is that the contemporary world is 'unpopular' with the United States standing alone as sole superpower with the rise of China.
India and perhaps some other nations the world may become if it's not already multipart. But Rupee's role in the geopolitical balance, according to this view remains insignificant. The word today has two global superpowers. One is the United States the other is Europe. Europe is the only region in the world, besides the United States able to exert global influence across the full spectrum of power, from hard to soft.Europe is the only region sides the United States that projects intercontinental military power.
And European countries posses a range of effective civilian instruments for projecting international influence that is unmatched by any country even the United States. These tools include European Union enlargement, neighborhood policy, trade, foreign aid, support for multilateral institutions and international law and European values. Since the end f the cold war, as the world system has become more independent, networked, democratic, and freer of overt ideology rivalry.Rupee's distinctive instruments of influence have become relatively, leading to a rise in European power. Over the next three or four generations trends in the foundations of European power high capita income, sophisticated economic production, and patterns of global consensus are also likely to be favorable.
If we view power in this multidimensional way, Europe is clearly the second superpower in a bipolar world. Over the past two decades, Europeans, both among themselves and in transatlantic relationship, have experienced extraordinary amity, cooperation, and policy success. The continent has been pacified.The EX. has enjoyed an astonishingly successful run: It completed the single market; established a single currency; created a zone without internal frontiers launched common defense, foreign and internal security policies; promulgated a constitutional treaty; and most importantly expanded from twelve to twenty seven multicultural members with a half dozen more states on the list to Join eventually. Far from falling into disarray the EX.
has emerged as the most ambitious and successful international organization of all time, pioneering institutional practices far in advance of anything sees elsewhere.At the same time despite its lack of any military buildup, Europe has established itself unambiguously as the world's second military power with combat troops active across the globe. Its military operations moreover are conducted almost exclusively in close cooperation with the and Europe have drawn closer together. Meanwhile the Ex.
's distinctive tools of civilian influence have gained in utility visa-¤-visa hard military power. The Ex.'s enlargement may well be the single most cost effective instrument to spread the peace and security that the West has deployed over the past twenty years.
