.. condoms and/or other barrier contraceptives, and reduced sexual frequency (Zaba & Gregson, 1998; Gregson, et al., 1999). Biological and behavioral factors among HIV+ men may also impact the fertility rates. In general, researchers have noted that biological factors, including reduced sperm count and reduced frequency of sexual activity related to physical illness, have been more important than behavioral factors (condom use, etc.

) when examining males' contributions to the declining fertility rates (Zaba & Gregson, 1998). Orphanhood & Early Childhood Mortality.The data on child mortality and AIDS are more confusing. There is no doubt that AIDS has had a devastating impact on children in Africa. The majority of the world's estimated 1.

1 million HIV+ children live in the hard-hit sub-Saharan African nations (Boyle, 1998, p. 1). Most children become infected in utero through maternal-to-fetus transmission or soon after birth through breast-feeding.The risk of breastfeeding-related HIV transmission is very high - estimated at 29% to 34% if primary HIV infection of the mother occurs during lactation (Boyle, 1998, p.

1). By the end of the year 2000, some 13 million children will have been orphaned by AIDS; 95% of these orphans live in sub-Saharan countries (Altman, 1999b, p. 1). As of 1997 11% of all children in Uganda, 9% of children in Zambia and 7% of children in Zimbabwe were AIDS-related orphans, having lost both parents to AIDS (Altman, 1999b, p.

2). At this point, most analysts view orphanhood as a more serious problem in sub-Saharan Africa than increases in child mortality. Children who are the victims of double orphanhood often place an impossible financial and social burden on elderly grandparents and are at high risk for labor exploitation and/or recruitment into gangs and militias. Gender Effects: The Case of Women.

In the developed nations of the world, women constitute about 20% of all HIV-positive adults (Altman, 1999a, p.4). This gender imbalance is primarily related to the concentrated pattern of transmission where the greatest number of cases are among male homosexuals and IV drug users. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, the gender pattern is much different. Researchers have long observed a fairly even gender distribution among African AIDS cases which is attributed to the generalized pattern of heterosexual transmission.

Recently released official data has revealed that 12.2 million or 55% of the 22.3 million HIV+ adults in sub-Saharan Africa are female (Altman, 1999a, p. 1).The African HIV gender disparity is particularly dramatic at the younger ages. In many sub-Saharan African countries, the incidence of HIV infection among girls between the ages of 15 and 19 years old is six to eight times that of their male counterparts (Reuters Health, 1999a, p.

1). A number of social and cultural factors are responsible for this discrepancy, including the high rates of rape in many African countries, the low age of sexual initiation among females, and the age disparity between young women and their first male sexual partners who alot of times are middle-aged men seeking virgins as sexual partners to ward off AIDS. Population-Wide Effects.Over time, higher-than-expected mortality rates and lower-than-expected fertility rates will have an impact on population growth. To date, hard data on the population-wide impact of AIDS have been limited. Preliminary data from some of the hardest-hit countries suggest that AIDS has already begun to effect population growth rates.

A 1998 UN report found that the high AIDS-related mortality rate in Zimbabwe had depressed population growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Between 1980 and 1985, Zimbabwe's population grew at 3.3% per year.By 1998, the annual growth rate had dropped to 1.4% and was projected to fall to less than 1% beginning in 2000 (Ibrahim, 1998, p.

1). In conclusion the AIDS epidemic is devastating African society. Historically, few epidemics have resulted in such widespread, devastating demographic effects. Thus far, the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has decreased fertility rates, increased mortality rates, shortened average life expectancy, increased the rate of orphanhood, and disrupted family structure. It is now poised to decimate population growth rates and alter the gender ratio.

The epidemic may well change the social and economic fabric of sub-Saharan Africa in ways that are not yet understood or anticipated. An International Labor Office report released in October of 1999 warned that "HIV/AIDS has now become the single most important obstacle to social and economic progress in many countries in Africa" and noted that the epidemic in the region has shifted from being primarily a health problem to being "a development problem with potentially ominous consequences" (Reuters Health, 1999b, p. 1). Preliminary studies suggest that the economic consequences of the AIDS epidemic will be no less devastating than the demographic consequences.

Direct economic consequences include the costs of medical care and social programs related to the epidemic while indirect consequences include factors such as dwindling labor productivity as the young, economically productive population takes ill and/or dies. Solving the development problem of the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa will require not only massive amounts of foreign aid and expertise, but also a massive social transformation. Through AIDS-prevention programs aimed at increasing condom use, reducing high-risk sexual behaviors, improving HIV screening, promoting alternatives to breastfeeding, and reducing social stigma associated with AIDS there can be a positive and measurable impact on HIV prevalence or else the Aids Epidemic will continue to claim the lives of millions and millions of Africans.BIBLIOGRAPHY Altman, L.

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