Year 2000 Bug 3506

Less than one year until the year 2000, two seemingly small digits may turnJanuary 1, 2000 from a worldwide celebration into a universal nightmare. Withcomputers mistaking the year 2000 for 1900, virtually all businesses that usedates will be affected. Not only will the companies be affected, but also theyare paying millions upon millions of dollars in order for computers to recognizethe difference between the years 2000 and 1900. The year 2000 computer bug is ahuge problem that our world must face. In order to explain how to solve the"millennium bug", it is a good idea to be informed about exactly whatthe year 2000 problem is. The year 2000 industry expert, Peter de Jager,described the problem quite well.

"We programmed computers to store thedate in the following format: dd/mm/yy. This only allows 2 digits for the year.January 1, 2000 would be stored as 01/01/00. But the computer will interpretthis as January 1, 1900- not 2000" (de Jager 1997). The '19' is"hard-coded" into computer hardware and software. Since there are only2 physical spaces for the year in this date format, after '99', the only logicalchoice is to reset the number to '00'.

The year 2000 problem is unlike any otherproblem in modern history for several reasons. Many computer professionals pointout some of the most important ones. Time is running out- the Year 2000 isinevitable! The problem will occur simultaneously worldwide, time zoneswithstanding. It affects all languages and platforms, hardware & software.The demand for solutions will exceed the supply.

"It is too big and toooverwhelming even for [Bill Gates and] Microsoft" (Widder 1997). Separate,any one of these points makes Y2K, a common abbreviation for the year 2000problem, an addition to the obstacle. Combined, they form what seems more like ahideous monster than an insignificant bug. The impact of Y2K on society isenormous, bringing the largest companies in the world to their knees, pleadingfor a fix at nearly any cost.

"The modern world has come to depend oninformation as much as it has on electricity and running water. Fixing theproblem is difficult because there are [less than] two years left to correct 40years of behavior" (de Jager 1997). “Alan Greenspan has warned that being99 percent ready isn't enough” (Widder 1997). “Chief Economist EdwardYardeni has said that the chances for a worldwide recession to occur because ofY2K are at 40%” (Widder 1997). Senator Bob Benett (Republican, Utah) made agood analogy about the potential of the problem. "In the 1970's, oil wasthe energy that ran our world economy.

Today it runs on the energy ofinformation." He later said, "To cripple the technological flow ofinformation throughout the world is to bring it to a virtual standstill" (Widder1997). The potential of the problem in everyday life is alarming. Imagine makinga loan payment in 1999 for a bill that is due in 2000. The company’s computerscould interpret the '00' as 1900 and you would then be charged with 99 years oflate fees (Moffitt & Sandler 1997).

If the year 2000 problem isn't solved,there could be "no air traffic, traffic lights, no lights in your company,companies could not produce goods, no goods delivered to the stores, storescould not send you bills, you could not send bills to anyone else. Business[could] come to a halt" (de Jager 1997). The costs of fixing Y2K arestaggering. The Gartner Group estimates that costs per line of code to bebetween $1.

50 and $2.00 (Conner 1). It is not uncommon for a single company tohave 100,000,000 lines of code (de Jager 1997). Capers Jones, an expert who hasstudied software costs for over ten years, estimates total worldwide costs to be$1,635,000,000,000 (One-trillion, 635 billion dollars) (Jones 1997).

To put thisnumber into perspective, if five people were to spend $100 for every second ofevery day, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, it would take them about 100 yearsto finish the task! The year 2000 problem is not only limited to what happenswith computers between December 31, 1999 and January 1, 2000. There are severalother important dates that are a factor. Last year was considered the last pointwhere a large company could start fixing the problem with any hopes to finishbefore the deadline. Also, all fixes should be done by January 1, 1999.

Thereare two major reasons for having the fixes done a year early. The first is thatthere are many "special dates" during 1999 that mean special things.For example, September 9, 1999 (09/09/99) has been commonly used as the"expiration date" for references and data that have no expiration date(Reid 1997). The computer required that a date must be entered in, and in manycases, 9/9/99 was it.

Also, it has been established that an entire year's cycleof events should be used to test all of the modifications that have been made toa system. Also, one should be sure to test to see which day of the week is01/01/00. January 1, 1900 was a Monday, but January 1, 2000 will be a Saturday.Other possible failure dates: 1/10/2000 (1st 9 character date), 2/29/2000 (Leapday- the year 2000 is a leap year), 10/10/2000 (1st 10 character date), and12-31-2000 (Day 366 of the year 2000)(GTE 1996). With the millennium"bug" coming closer and closer to destroying the "crops" ofthe world's information every day, experts from around the globe have discoveredseveral ways to deal with or "exterminate" this menace.

Five majorsolutions to the problem will now be discussed. The most straightforwardapproach to solving Y2K is to simply change the 2-digit date fields to 4-digitones. This is considered to be the only complete solution to the problem, givingbusinesses a seemingly endless range of dates for the future. This approach alsocan make it much easier for the company to reformat the display screens with ahard-coded format present (IBM 1998). Unfortunately, expanding the date fieldfrom 2 to 4 digits has several downsides to it.

The most obvious one is that inorder to convert the dates, every program and database that references to datedata will have to be modified. These modifications are mostly manual labor- notan automatic process. Also, this requires display screens to be reformattedmanually, as well as increasing record lengths in databases (IBM 1997). Anothercommon method for swatting the millennium bug involves what is termed "datelogic", or "windowing techniques". This procedure involves havinga separate program to determine which millennium certain dates are in.

Forexample, the program could determine that if the year ends in numbers between 00and 20, the date is in the second millennium. If the year ends in 21 to 99, thedate is in the first millennium. This technique avoids some of the massivechanges and coordination associated with the expansion approach (Martin 1997).Date logic routines also have some downsides to them.

The most important one isthat the "time window" can never be more than 100 years, and thelength of the time window cannot change in the future. Also, system performancemay slow down with this extra step for each date to be processed. On top ofthat, all of the assumptions and logic must be the same for all of the programsthat will use it (IBM 1998). If and only if all three of these downsides towindowing techniques can be overcome, should a business consider this solution?Another way of getting around 2-digit dates involves a bridge program. This typeof solution is used to convert data from one record format to another.

Thisallows a system to convert 2-digit to 4-digit dates as they are needed. Thisalso allows a business to have very little down time for year 2000 renovations.Instead of converting all of the data at one time, it is instead convertedgradually. Also, this technique is very cost effective and fairly easy to do(Moffitt & Sandler 1997).

Be aware that a bridge program has the potentialto ruin a computer system. By removing the bridge before all data has beenconverted, 2-digit dates may become mixed with 4-digit dates, creating a largerproblem than in the beginning. Replacing the systems is probably the moststraightforward method of solving Y2K. By simply discarding old, non-compliantsystems and purchasing new systems that are year 2000 ready, a business caneliminate the year 2000 problem altogether (Martin 1997). This avoids the hassleof coming up with solutions to the problem, but presents the difficulties ofstarting from scratch.

This solution should be considered if a company’ssystems are too costly to fix, or if there are not very many systems that needto be fixed. Another idea that incorporates the replacement idea is for onecompany to merge with or buy another company that has Y2K compliant systems.Then, the old systems can be retired (Martin 1997). The last alternative thatwill be discussed is to do nothing to current computer systems that a businessmay use. This is not the same as ignoring the millennium bug and hoping that itwill go away.

Instead, it involves analyzing exactly what will happen to acompany’s computer systems and determining that the effect it will have iseither none or very little (Martin 1997). If this would be the case, andemployees could work around any damages that may be caused, this selection couldwork. Carrying out a solution in any business involves careful planning in orderto be successful. Each of the four steps- awareness, planning, implementation,and testing- are crucial for a company to successfully get beyond the year 2000.Though the shortest step, the awareness step can be considered to be the mostimportant step.

This involves a detailed description of the problem to CEO’sand the other decision-makers for the company. Also, the management must beinformed of the impact that is likely to occur if Y2K is not solved. Withoutsuccessfully informing the company executives of the millennium bug, there is nohope of getting funding appropriated and fixes underway (Conner 1997). Thepreparation and planning phase involves finding all applications that use datesand choosing the right combination of solutions to result in a successfulendeavor. Also, a business must consider any dependencies on outside systems-other companies, for example. In addition to this, a "priorityschedule" should be created, to determine which systems are absolutelynecessary to the operation of the business, and to fix them in accordance totheir importance (Conner 1997).

standard date interface should be agreed uponboth within the company and with all other companies, which are relied on. Also,the first estimate of how costly and how prolonged the fixes should be done(Conner 1997). The implementation phase is probably the most tedious phase ofyear 2000 compliance. This involves taking proposed solutions and incorporatingthem into a business’ computer systems.

Depending on which solutions arechosen, and how the solutions affect everyday business, a company’s commercecould be crippled due to the need for various systems to be down at all times(Moffitt & Sandler 1997). Testing the solutions may be seen as anunimportant phase in the conversion process. The rewards seem few, and the costsof are high. However, testing solutions is the only way to ensure that abusiness will flow smoothly into the 21st century. This procedure involvesmaking sample databases and records to verify that the fixes were madecorrectly, and that all systems work correctly.

During this phase, a fewglitches will most likely be found, and correcting these will be relativelyeasy. There are two common approaches to testing the solutions. The firstinvolves making sure the systems work correctly in the 20th century, testing thecomputers for the 21st century, and then putting the systems back into everydayuse. An advantage of this method is that all of the tests are done at the sametimes, allowing quicker feedback. The downside is that the amount of down timewill be fairly high. The other approach is the same as the first, exceptswitching the second and third items.

The systems are first put back intoproduction, and then they are tested for year 2000 compliance while they areensuring the flow of business at the same time. The advantage of this method isthat down time is much shorter. However, getting results will take a longer time(Pollner 1998). In conclusion, as the year 2000 comes closer and closer,companies are losing precious time in order to swat the millennium bug. Thedeadline is fixed.

The price of survival is high and the only reward is the hopeof continuing to operate in the worlds of commerce and industry. Businesses thatcontinue into the next millennium will enjoy the happiness of existence.Companies that fail to act now will probably crumble under their own weight."The alternative to addressing the year 2000 will be going out ofbusiness" (Moffitt & Sandler 1997). Year 2000 is coming.