S. income level rises at a much higher rate than does the Canadian income level. Other things being equal, how should this affect the (a) U. S. demand for Canadian dollars, (b) supply of Canadian dollars for sale, and (c) equilibrium value of th Canadian dollar? f the C di d ll ? ? Assuming no effect on U. S. interest rates, demand for dollars should increase, ? Supply of dollars for sale may not be affected, and ? The dollar’s value should increase. Trade Restriction Effects on Exchange Rates • Assume that the Japanese government relaxes its controls on imports by Japanese companies.
Other things being equal, how should this affect the (a) U. S. demand for Japanese yen, (b) supply of yen for sale, and (c) equilibrium value of the yen? ? Demand for yen should not be affected, ? Supply of yen for sale should increase, and ? The value of yen should decrease. 2 Effects of Real Interest Rates • What is the expected relationship between the relative real interest rates of two countries and the exchange rate of their currencies? ? The higher the real interest rate of a country relative to another country, the stronger will be its home currency, other things equal. Speculative Effects on Exchange Rates Explain why a public forecast about future interest rates could affect the value of the dollar today. Why do some forecasts by well-respected economists have no impact on today’s value of the dollar? ? Speculators can use anticipated interest rate movements to forecast exchange rate movements. ? Th may purchase f i securities b They h foreign iti because of their f th i expectations about currency movements, since their yield will be affected by changes in a currency’s value. ? These purchases of securities require an exchange of currencies, which can immediately affect the equilibrium value of exchange rates. It was already anticipated by market participants or is not different from investors’ original expectations. Interaction of Exchange Rates • Assume that there are substantial capital flows among Canada, the U. S. , and Japan. If interest rates in Canada decline to a level below the U. S. interest rate, and inflationary expectations remain unchanged, how could this affect the value of the Canadian dollar against the U. S. dollar? ? If interest rates in Canada decline, there may be an increase in capital flows from Canada to the U. S. ? In addition, U. S. investors may attempt to capitalize on higher U.
S. interest rates, while U. S. investors reduce their investments in Canada’s securities. ? This places downward pressure on the Canadian dollar’s value. 3 Interaction of Exchange Rates • How might this affect the value of the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen? ? Japanese investors that previously invested in Canada may , p shift to the U. S. Thus, the reduced flow of funds from Japan would place downward pressure on the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. Relative Importance of Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Risk • Assume that the level of capital flows between the U.
S. and the country of Krendo is negligible and will continue to be. But there is a substantial amount of trade between the U. S. and the country of Krendo. Which affect, high inflation or high interest rates will be seen in the value of the Krendo’s currency? Krendo s • The inflation effect will be stronger than the interest rate effect because inflation affects trade flows. ? The high inflation should cause downward pressure on the kren. Speculation • Blue Demon Bank expects that the Mexican peso will depreciate against the dollar from its spot rate of $. 5 to $. 14 in 10 days. The following interbank lending and borrowing rates exist: U. S. dollar Mexican peso Lending Rate Borrowing Rate 8. 0% 8. 3% 8. 5% 8. 7% Assume that Blue Demon Bank has a borrowing capacity of either $10 million or 70 million pesos in the interbank market, depending on which currency it wants to borrow. How could Blue Demon Bank attempt to capitalize on its expectations without using deposited funds? Estimate the profits that could be generated from this strategy. 4 Speculation 1. Borrow MXP70 million 2.
Convert the MXP70 million to dollars: MXP70,000,000 ? $. 15 = $10,500,000 3. Lend the dollars through the interbank market at 8. 0% annualized over a 10-day period. The amount accumulated in 10 days is: $10,500,000 ? [1 + (8% ? 10/360)] [ ] = $10,500,000 ? [1. 002222] = $10,523,333 4. Repay the peso loan. The repayment amount on the peso loan is: MXP70,000,000 ? [1 + (8. 7% ? 10/360)] = 70,000,000 ? [1. 002417] = MXP70,169,167 5. Based on the expected spot rate of $. 14, the amount of dollars needed to repay the peso loan is: MXP70,169,167 ? $. 14 = $9,823,683 6.
After repaying the loan, Blue Demon Bank will have a speculative profit of: $10,523,333 – $9,823,683 = $699,650 Speculation • Assume all the preceding information with this exception: Blue Demon Bank expects the peso to appreciate from its present spot rate of $. 15 to $. 17 in 30 days. How could it attempt to capitalize on its expectations without using deposited funds? Estimate the profits that could be generated from this strategy. Speculation 1. Borrow $10 million 2. Convert the $10 million to pesos (MXP): $10,000,000/$. 15 = MXP66,666,667 3. Lend the pesos through the interbank market at 8. % annualized over a 30-day period. The amount accumulated in 30 days is: MXP66,666,667 ? [1 + (8. 5% ? 30/360)] [ ] = 66,666,667 ? [1. 007083] = MXP67,138,889 4. Repay the dollar loan. The repayment amount on the dollar loan is: $10,000,000 ? [1 + (8. 3% ? 30/360)] = $10,000,000 ? [1. 006917] = $10,069,170 5. Convert the pesos to dollars to repay the loan. The amount of dollars to be received in 30 days (based on the expected spot rate of $. 17) is: MXP67,138,889 ? $. 17 = $11,413,611 6. The profits are (could be): $11,413,611 – $10,069,170 = $1,344,441 5
