Throughout the history, defection has always been with people for the reason of the difference of religion, ideologies, and political belief. [1] Knowing why defection occurs and what makes defection happen is a key point to getting a sense of understanding of political issues in those countries that you’re interested in.
In many Eastern European nations, such as the Soviet Union, every aspect of human lifestyle was being regulated and oppressed to the point that people couldn’t leave their countries due to the emigration restrictions.Regulations on emigration was a serious violation of human rights, so from then on many soviet union’s scholars and intellectuals tried their best to defect from Soviet Union to western European nations or to the U. S to avoid such government oppression and inequality. Also, since Mao Zedong took office in mainland china in 1949, more than 2 million defectors fled mainland china. Until Tiananmen Square protest in 1989, many Chinese defectors also defected to Taiwan or the U. S.
[2]When it comes to North Korean defectors, many North Koreans defect from North Korea to South Korea even after the installation of the Demilitarized Zone and 1953 ceasefire. In the 1990s, the number of defectors reached a three-digit figure, and the figure reached four digits in 2002. [3] Between 2006 and 2011, around 2,500 North Korean defectors came to South Korea every year, and the profile of defectors started to get diversified, ranging from the poor to diplomats and soldiers. In 2011 when Kim Jong-un took office, the number of defectors decreased to 1,400 for about three years because of his harsher punishment and stricter policing.
However, recently mostly in 2016 the figure started to experience a 15. 6 percent of increase, reaching 815 defectors as of the end of June. [4] Out of these number of defectors, many of North Korean elites have been included in this statistics, which have never been seen in Korean history after Korean war. The most recent case is Tae Yong-ho who was based in Britain was one of the high-ranking North Korean diplomats defected to South Korea on this August. [5] This paper will investigate why there are sudden increases in the number of high level defectors.
Diplomats and soldiers in Communist countries such as North Korea are really important figures to maintain the communist regime and it must be important indication that something is actually happening in North Korea. Therefore, this paper will seek to explain why the number of North Korea elite defectors has been on the rise recently. Two Alternate Hypothesis International level: If a nation is being isolated diplomatically from the world, then there will be an increase of defection of elite leaders. Theory A is not as strong as my primary hypothesis.At the international level, North Korea has been isolated since Korean war, and it was their national principle to be independent from western power; principle of independence, self-reliance, and self-defense was their principle to defend and maintain the country’s sovereignty.
[6] Therefore, there is no direct correlation between the fact that North Korea is being isolated diplomatically and the rising number of North Korean elite defectors because North Korea has been isolated for a long time diplomatically, but the number of North Korean elite defectors is on the rise recently.Individual decision-maker: If a leader is paranoid, then there will be an increase of defection of elite leaders. Theory B is not as strong as my primary hypothesis as well because there is no clear correlation between the defection and a leader being paranoid. At individual level, a leader could be worried about his positions and kill other top elite leaders around him to maintain his regime. In this sense, just because a leader kills and purges other elite leaders doesn’t necessarily mean that he is paranoid and megalomaniac.
It might be true that if a leader is paranoid, then there will be an increase of defection of elite leaders. However, in the case of North Korea, it’s hard to argue that Kim Jong-un is paranoid and megalomaniac just because there has been an increase of defection of elite leaders. Hypothesis and Methodology Testable Hypothesis ( Domestic Level) If there is a fear of collapse of a nation, then there will be an increase of defection of elite leaders.Defection can be used in lots of different situations because it basically means desertion from allegiance, loyalty, duty, a country, or a party. In other words, it’s implying the act of leaving a country, political party, etc. to go to another one.
In this paper, it’s implying leaving a country to go to another one for better life, explaining about North Korean elite defectors. Independent Variable: IV is a fear of collapse. Collapse means an inability to continue or stay in operation. In this paper, it’s not just a collapse of a nation, but it’s more like regime change and the economic instability.Since Kim Jong-un took the throne in 2012, unlike his father and grandfather, his style of leadership has been significantly different in terms of killing top officials. His father and grandfather were not willing to kill their top official leaders, but rather sent them to prison camps.
[7] Also, the economy of North Korea is on the verge of collapse due to several reasons such as sanctions against North Korea, natural disaster, and the drop of its mineral exports. Therefore, the fear of collapse here is meaning slightly different than what it actually means because it’s having a couple of different meanings.Measuring and Testing To analyze and investigate what the defection and collapse are in the hypothesis above, it’s necessary to understand what types of people in North Korea defected recently. Hwang Jang-yop, Thae young-ho, Ko young-hwan, Jang seung-gil, Hong soon-kyeong, etc.
all have something in common, which is all of them were North Korean diplomats or key executive members in North Korea. Among them Hwang Jang-yop used to be in charge of crafting Juche which is now North Korea’s state ideology. [8] Thae Yong-ho who was No. 2 Diplomat in London defected to South Korea on this August.The clear indication of collapse of North Korea is that Kim Jong-un killed Jang song-thaek who was one of his family members, and 8 people who were related to Jang song-taek as well.
[9] Therefore, diplomats and other elite members of North Korea began to feel scared and tired of Kim Jong-un regime. In addition, recently the fact that North Korean workers who are sent abroad to other countries could be another important sign of collapse of the North Korea as North Korean workers overseas are treated as good “Songbun”, which means their background is high enough to be able to go outside of North Korea.Moreover, the collapse of economy is something that this paper will take a closely look at in order to specify how North Korean economy started to collapse and to ascertain that the moment that the number of North Korean defectors started to increase was when the economy of North Korea began to collapse. This paper also will use the specific case of Thae Yong-ho and the death of Jang song-taek to further discuss and understand the current problem in North Korea.Considering the current situation of North Korea where the number of North Korean elite defectors has been increased ever since Kim Jong-un took the throne, this case study will be useful to examine why this problem happens. Case Study The fear of collapse of North Korea has been caused largely by the collapse of the economy, and stricter policing by Kim Jong-un.
The economy of North Korea has been struggling recently due to the economic sanctions by the U. S, South Korea, and the UN against North Korea. The U.S has imposed economic and political sanctions as a policy tool to coerce North Korea’s behavior, such as by discontinuing its nuclear weapons program.
[10] This sanction was approved by the United Nations Security Council in 2009 in the wake of North Korea’s several nuclear tests. The U. S economic sanctions include resources that are essential for health, such as food, drugs, vaccines, energy, and water. One of the critical reasons the economy has plummeted recently is because the economic sanction has restricted the import of items needed to build modern economy such as technology that might be used for military and civilian.
On top of the U. S sanction against North Korea, the sanction of South Korea also has led to the collapse of the economy of North Korea. Despite the continuing nuclear tests of North Korea in 1990s, there wasn’t a complete shutdown of aid project for North Korea. For example, during the term of president Kim Dae Jung, there was the Sunshine policy which was expected to maintain peace on Korean peninsula and improve the relationship between North and South Korea. [12] However, the Sunshine policy did not go well.
After president Kim’s term ended, North Korea restarted developing its nuclear tests and threaten South Korea by attacking Cheonan, a South Korea warship, and on Yeon pyong island in 2010. The Yeonpyeong Island artillery attack and Cheonan sinking were the trigger of complete shutdown of aid project for North Korea because the North Korea’s sinking of the Cheonan warship resulted in 46 casualties, thereby escalating tensions between the two countries. [13] Such provocations by the North started to make ROK government suspect the level of trust in the relationship, and start the complete economic sanction against North Korea.As a result, South Korea decided to shut down Kaesong Industrial complex which was based in North Korea that provided hundreds of millions of dollars to the North Korea government in response to the 4th nuclear tests in 2016 January. In addition to South Korea sanction against North Korea, the United Nations security council adopted provisions of UNSCR 2270 of March 2, 2016 and NKSPEA to tighten the import and export restrictions against North Korea, and to strengthen the complete regulation of the Worker’s Party of Korea and the Government of North Korea.
This was unprecedented because UN had been reluctant to sanctions against North Korea on the ground that those sanctions could violate principles established by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. [15] Other factors that had on effect on the falls in exports were that the price of mineral resources started declining in 2013 and china’s new policy on importing mineral sources. North Korea is the country where full of mineral resources such as anthracite coal and iron ore reserves are buried.As the state-owned mining and trading companies monopolize interests in mineral exports, the reduction of mineral exports could translate into the reduction of foreign currency revenue. Because mineral exports are considered one of the most profitable industries in North Korea, the situation that’s been occurring caused severe damage to the economy.
However, because of the recent price fall in those minerals and China’s slowing growth and new energy-saving policy demands for minerals dropped, which ultimately caused severe damage to the economy. [16] Natural disaster has been the big problem in North Korea.For example, Spring drought and heavy summer rainfalls have been damaging the country since the mid-1990s. The director of the Agricultural Department of the North Korean Ministry of Agriculture said as follow: droughts, heat, and typhoons” caused serious damage in the agricultural sector, and the amount of the lost grain was estimated at over 1. 4 million tons. As a result, the food shortage is most likely to continue[17] Even the German Red Cross officials informed that he had never seen like the famine conditions in North Korea since the world war II.
Dead bodies were everywhere on the streets, and people even practiced cannibalism due to starvation. While the country suffered from starvation and drought, Typhoon Winnie also hit North Korea’s west coast in 1997, which put the economy of North Korea deeper into the hole. [18] The economy of North Korea has declined along with the several sanctions against North Korea, natural disaster, and the fall in the price of minerals since the early 1990s, and this was when the number of elite North Korean defectors started to increase.One of the most famous and well known elite defectors is Hwang Jang yop who was one of the creators of the Juche ideology, which had an important role as the central guideline for both domestic and foreign policies. [19] He defected to South Korea in 1997, forecasting the imminent collapse of the North Korea.
[20]In addition, Ko Young-Hwan defected to South in 1991, and he is considered a critical figure for elite North Korean defectors because he is the first known diplomat from the North to defect to South Korea since the Korean War.Another factor that has been attributed to rise in the number of elite North Korean defector recently is the emergence of Kim Jong-un in 2012. Before long, Kim Jong-Un started to purge military members. During the first two years of his power, around half of all the top elite generals were ousted from their positions and purged, including Ri Young-Ho who used to be the most powerful general in the previous regime. [21]The most shocking event was his decision to purge his uncle, Chang Song-Taek, with machine guns.On December 8, 2013, something dramatic was broadcasted, which was about him being dragged from a central committee meeting without mercy.
He was shot with machine guns four days later in public for plotting to overthrow the government. His purge is quite meaningful in several ways as follow: It was the first known execution of a top leader in decades, it was the first time a top official was publicly arrested or tried since the purges of the 1950s, and it was the first time someone so closely related to the ruling family was known to have been executed. [22]But it is still questioned as to whether the purge implied Kim Jong-un was not sure about his power because his father barely killed top officials in his regime, or whether it just meant his lack of political experience. Ever since Kim Jong-un took power, the number of elite North Korean defectors increased, and the profile of defectors is getting diverse, broadly ranging from diplomats and employees at a North Korea restaurant in other countries to talented teenagers who have been taught elite education. Tae Young Ho used to be the No. 2 diplomat based in London, and defected to South Korea this summer.
This is what he feels about current North Korea’s regime why he had to defect to South Korea: According to Jeong Joon-hee, a spokesman at South Korea’s unification ministry, Thae’s motives for defecting were political. He was “sick and tired of the Kim Jong-un regime, and was worried about his children’s future. [23]In addition, according to Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), he was told to return to Pyongyang “for questioning as regards the embezzlement of huge amount of state funds, leakage of state secrets for money and rape of a minor.Moreover, KCNA stated that Thae Yong-ho deserved a legal punishment for his crimes. [24] Thae’s defection reflects that there was a fear of being purged or being sent to labor camp.
Also, it represents that the diplomatic face for North Korea is being damaged and there are possibilities that more elite North Korean might be able to defect because even the diplomat Thae whose background is privileged and has a close relationship with Kim family defected to South Korea.On top of the diplomats’ defection, a lot of employees at North Korean restaurant in other countries began to defect to South Korea recently as well. When the North Korean government send their employees oversea to make foreign currencies, they don’t send random employees. Those who selected as overseas employees have to get through thorough background investigation just in case those employees escape. Despite all these efforts of North Korea, in early April, 13 North Korean workers escaped from their jobs which are located in the city of Ningbo.
Most of them decides to defect to South Korea, and the number of these North Korea defectors are getting increased as well. The reason the number of these defector has increased is because of the collapse of North Korea economy. All North Korean restaurants that are located in other countries are owned and operated by the North Korean government. However, because of the recent economy collapse that’s been happening in North Korea, the working condition and wages became poor, which triggered a flood of North Korean defectors.These defectors mentioned above are all part of privileged and high-rank class in North Korea as only those who are classified and recognized as “Paektu Bloodline” and “good” songbun (family back ground) can be high-rank generals and diplomats or be sent abroad to work in North Korean restaurant. [26] The striking increase in the number of defectors from North Korea is the sign of weakening state system, the unstable economy, and the fear of stricter policing of Kim Jong-un.
Since 1990s, the number of defectors started to increase up to 148 in 1999, and today the average number of defectors from North Korea is around 2,500 which is incomparable to the number of defectors before 1990s. [27]The number of North Korean defectors has increased not only because of the increase in the number of poor North Korean defectors, but also because of the increase in the number of elite North Korean. By 2010, the number of North Korean defectors who resettled in South Korea already exceeded 20,000, and the number is expected to grow much faster than before given the current situation of North Korea. [28]
