All things equal, when there is a rise in the number of people that will buy a certain product or service, then the demand for this product or service will increase, in the same manner that a decrease in the number of people who will avail the product or services will also mean the decrease in demand.
This is true especially in industries where “the demand is particularly responsive to numbers” and a “growing population” (Ansley J. Coale, et al). In this sense, the distribution of population on certain age brackets will be able to determine the increase or decrease in demand of certain products or services.In the case of the demand in baby diapers and retirement villages, all things equal, its rise or decrease is totally affected by the population babies and senior citizens. More babies mean more diapers, and more senior citizens mean more retirement villages. Thus a closer look on United States Census Bureau’s population pyramid for the years, 2000, 2025, and 2050 will help determine the distribution of population to babies and senior citizens, and will also help predict the increase or decrease in the demand for baby diapers and retirement villages in the coming years so as to be prepared for it.
Population pyramids of the countries Mexico, Japan and United States of America will show us many things, like the predicted number of population per age bracket and its distribution by gender. In comparison, we can see that the percentage increase in the demand for diapers will be greatest in the United States of America. In their population pyramid, it can be seen that in 2000, there are almost 20 million people in the 0-4 age bracket, almost 10 million male and almost 10 million female.By 2050 the population of people aged 0-4 in the United States of America will have increased to more than 14 million male and less than 14 million female, or more or less 28 million toddlers in need of baby diapers, an increase of approximately 40% in 50 years time. Mexico’s population in 2000 of less than 12 million babies (less than six million male and less than six million female) is predicted to decrease to less than 10 million in 2050 (less than five million male, less than five million female).These shows a decrease of approximately 16.
67% in the number of people aged 0-4 in Mexico, thus a decrease in the demand for baby diapers. Japan’s population of less than six million people aged 0-4 (more than three million male, less than three million female) in 2000 is also predicted to decrease to more than three million (less than two million male, less than two million female) in 2050, an approximately 50% decrease in the population of people aged 0-4 and a significant decrease in the demands for baby diapers.With this scenario Japan will most likely have the least demands for baby diapers in 50 years time. When it comes to the demand for retirement villages, Mexico will have the most percentage increase in 50 years time.
The population of people in the 65-69 age bracket in Mexico is approximately two million (less than a million male, more than a million female) and is predicted to increase to approximately eight million (less than four million male, more than four million female) in 2050.This is a 400% increase in the population of people in the retirement age in Mexico which will lead to an increase in the demand for retirement villages. United States of America will likely have a modest percentage increase in retirement villages compared to Mexico. Its population of people in the 65-69 age bracket in 2000 is more or less 10 million (more or less five million male and female) and is predicted to increase into more or less 22 million (more or less 11 million male and female) in 2050, a 220% increase within 50 years.
Meanwhile, Japan will have a percentage decrease in the demand for retirement villages. In 2000, the population of Japanese in the 55-59 age bracket (55 is the age of forced retirement in Japan) is more or less nine million (more than four million male, more than four million female). It is predicted in the population pyramid that by 2050, the population of people in the 55-59 age bracket will be less than six million (less than three million male, less than three million female).This indicates a 33.
33% decrease in fifty years, which will also lead to lesser demand for retirement villages in Japan. When it comes to absolute increase in demand, United States of America will have the greatest increase in demand of both baby diapers and retirement villages. Percentage aside, United States of America has the biggest raw population and population increase in the specified age brackets which are also the target markets of these two products.Keeping this in mind, we can say that in the next fifty years, the United States of America will have a steady growth in the demand of baby diapers and retirement villages that cannot be outnumbered by both Mexico and Japan.
Although Mexico sees more percentage growth in the demand for retirement villages, when converting this percentage to actual numbers, United States of America definitely still has more demands than Mexico. Japan will have very low absolute demand of both baby diapers and retirement villages because of their low population which will continue to significantly decline in the next fifty years.
