Canada’s demographic challenge

Canada is facing a severe demographic challenge. It is very likely to hit the economy very badly in near future. This may lead to internal and external crisis of situation. Within the country, it may face lack of all commodities and services that support human life and internationally it may loose its status as one of the most powerful nation. This paper attempts to investigate the reasons underlying the present day demographic situation in Canada, with focus on the province of New Brunswick.

It also tries to study its impact on the economy and finally suggests ways and means to meet this challenge, which is assuming the proportions of a great threat, to the stable and prosperous existence of the nation. Cause and effect are always interrelated. This implies that the effect invariably has a definite cause or a set of reasons. If lack of population is the effect, there are many reasons behind this effect.

. Talking of Canada, one of the reasons underlying the lack of population is its geographic situation. This huge mass of land is very near to the artic circle and suffers from very cold conditions throughout the year. It has been proved biologically that life precipitates maximum in temperate climatic conditions where a reasonable amount of natural heat exists.Extremely cold conditions simply do not support multiplication of life, in a natural way. This natural reason is the root cause of all demography related challenges of Canada.

The second reason is the ageing population of Canada. Statistical data reveal that the ratio of elderly people to the working class in Canada will be the highest in the next 25 years. It is a fact that there are five people in the working age group against each retired person. This is expected to come down to 2. 5 to 1 person in the next 25 to 30 years.

The rise in the ageing population results in decline in the fertility and the birth rate. During the past 30 years, the rise in the ratio of working class to retired population was 6 percent, which will jump to almost 20 percent in the next 30 years. Canada is on the brink of serious demographic challenge. (Annex 3, para 5, 6,7, [2005] ) Past and projected increase in ratios of elderly to working class population in Canada ( Annex 3 [2005] ) A deeper study of the situation in New Brunswick reveals that in this province, the demographic challenge is not related to ageing population alone.It has additional factors like declining birth rate and very low fertility rates.

These challenges are multiplied by government policies which do not provide any stimulation to couples to think of a child, or of the second child. Couples do not think of raising the number of their family members from 2 to 3 or from 3 to 4, because of the high costs involved in rearing a baby, and converting him. /her into a responsible, educated adult. A campaign in New Brunswick, advocating birth of a baby in the present for every couple, to see a marked increase in population by 2026 has miserably ailed, mainly due to this reason.High living and education costs, compared to meager or insufficient income, combined with lack of adequate support from the provincial government, lads to a situation, which refrains parents from thinking of a child at all, or think of second child. Often, it results into leaving the province and settle in other provinces where professional opportunities are more, well paying and the government support exists.

( Ginette Petitpas-Taylor, n. d. )What exactly are the demographic problems faced by Canada and New Brunswick? First the figures need to be studied. The population of Canada in 1867 was 3,555,879 and in 2005 it was 32,623,490. (Estimate populations of Canada: 1605 to present, [2007], n.

a. )This means a ten fold increase in almost 140 years. Here one of the positive aspects is that there has been a steady increase every year. Since 1867, there has never been a declining trend, but the increase is never encouraging either. In the case of New Brunswick, its total population in 1851 was 193,800 which has increased to 729,997 in 2006.

This implies a four fold increase in more than 150 years.The point of worry lies in the fact that since the beginning of this century, the population graph of New Brunswick is showing a negative trend. (Annual demographic estimates, [2006], n. a.

) This province is also facing outward immigration, especially in the age group of 20 to 40 years. This is because the job opportunities, cost of living and education and the government support to families are much better in other provinces. Figures reveal that since 1991-92, the inward migrants into New Brunswick have varied between 10000 to 12000 whereas, the outward migrants, varied between 11000 to 13000.On an average 2000 more adults have left the province every year, than those who came in. It is a great point of worry for New Brunswick, that the younger population is leaving for greener pastures in other provinces. ( ‘It is time to act’, page 6, n.

a. ) One of the major challenges face by New Brunswick is that it does not attract immigrants. This province lacks the features that can be attract and prompt people to stay here. Since 1970, the number of non Canadian immigrants into this province has been decreasing. ( ‘It is time to act’, page 7, n.

a. ).To top all the problems, the statistical figures reveal that natural increase of the population is almost zero. This natural increase is summation of births minus deaths. This stood at 7042 in 1971 and dwindled to 252 in 2005-06. The impact of negative migration was offset by the natural increase in the past, whereas, positive net migration will be required to increase the population.

( ‘It is time to act’, page 5, n. a. ) One of the outstanding examples of economic impact of demographic changes is in the health sector program of the Canadian government.Canada’s total liability in the health, education, seniors and children’s program stands at $ 300 billion. These figures indicate that if the current level of aid is to be maintained, the tax payers in future will have to pay more than their predecessors. The long term commitments by the government need to be carefully planned.

If they outrun the capacity of the tax payer to pay, then the programs may be squeezed or eliminated altogether. ( Robson William B. P. 2003) The report of the auditor general of Canada mentions that, the per capita public spending on the health care for those aged 65 and above will be five times more than spending on the rest of the population.The old age security payments are expected to rise to 0.

5% to 1 % of the gross domestic product, and the public health costs by 2. 5% to 4 % of the gross domestic product by 2040 ( The Honorable Jerahmiel S. (Jerry) Grafstein, Q. C. , Chair, The Honorable W.

David Angus, Q. C. , Deputy Chair and the Honourable Senators, June 2006) what is true of the health care sector is true for all other aspects of economy and the society of Canada. The picture is rather grim.

What can be done?The effect of the actions in the later half of the 20th century are bound to reflect themselves in the first half of the current century. Canada cannot escape that. But, if steps are taken in present, Canada may be able to partially overcome the negative impact of the demographic challenges. The first thing Canada needs to do is to look at its own past. Her natural wealth attracted European settlers, that created urban centers like Montreal and Ottawa.The needs of this population, prompted the government to lay stress on infra structure development, which required a huge skilled and unskilled labor force.

a structural development Floating large scale infra structural projects, will surely attract immigrants in huge numbers. An example could be building more airports, to make the entire country air-prone. Another example could be massive exploration of its land reserves who knows, Canada may be the middle east of future, with abundant crude oil reserves. The federal government should concentrate on making the living standards more affordable Or less costlier to the citizens. Currently the provinces have considerable freedom to decide on these policies.

Centralizing these policies, will help in avoiding disparities between the inter province migration. Once the living standards, education expenses and the social benefits are equal in New Brunswick and Ontario, less number of people would be tempted to leave New Brunswick for Ontario. This will lessen the inequality between the prosperity of the provinces, and help in stabilization and growth of the national economy. Lastly, it is mandatory for the Canadian government to increase the spending on child welfare and social security, without any additional burden on the tax payer.

This will prompt the young generation to grow their families. (Ginette Petitpas-Taylor, n. d. ) The only way to do this is by increasing the productivity of its own machinery. Unconfirmed reports lead one to believe that the Chinese army, if not at war, is utilized for farming and agriculture. Canada needs to work on these lines.

Nothing can save Canada from the wrath of nature – the extremely cold weather. However, a few giant steps, backed by strong political will, can surely help Canada in lessening the impact of demographic challenge it is currently facing.